Scenario Planning and Africa’s Energy Future

Picking up from the first part of this piece, when we talk about energy security in Africa, three elements always stand out: technology, finance, and policy. Without the right technology, we cannot generate or distribute power reliably. Without finance, even the best ideas remain on paper. And without enabling policies, investments stall and projects crumble. These three are foundational and must be thought about not just in today’s terms but in how they could change tomorrow. That’s where scenario planning becomes vital.

Technology

Technology can rapidly shift the energy landscape, and we need to bet on more than one horse, especially in the African context. For instance, imagine two technology futures:

  • In one, solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles become cheaper and more widespread, transforming Africa into a clean energy leader.
  • In another, supply chain bottlenecks or slow adoption mean fossil fuels still dominate for decades.

If policymakers only plan for the first, they risk being stranded if technology progress slows. If they only plan for the second, they miss the leapfrog opportunity. Scenario planning therefore teaches us to hedge bets: build capacity in renewables but also keep transitional fuels like gas in play. The practical lesson here is this — don’t put all your eggs in one energy basket.

Finance: Preparing for Abundance or Scarcity

Africa needs billions of dollars annually to close its energy gap. But funding is unpredictable. Some futures may bring abundant green investment through climate finance and global partnerships. Others may bring capital scarcity if donor nations pull back or global markets tighten. We have seen that with the many investment pledges made at events such as COP, very little comes to Africa.

We’ve also seen how sudden shocks, like the U.S. withdrawal of climate finance commitments under the Trump administration, can derail projects. A scenario lens forces us to ask: What if concessional finance dries up? What if local capital markets must carry the load of financing energy projects? This mindset pushes African nations to diversify funding sources—from sovereign green bonds to public–private partnerships—rather than relying too heavily on external partners.

Policy: The Make-or-Break Factor

Policies set the rules of the game. In one scenario, reforms encourage investment, regional power trading deepens, and subsidies are redirected to clean energy access. In another, political instability, poor regulation, and broader socio-economic issues can slow progress, even if technology and finance are available.

Scenario planning helps leaders design “no-regret policies”—policies that make sense across futures. For example, improving energy efficiency, investing in grid reliability, and promoting regional interconnectors are beneficial whether the world races toward renewables or lingers in fossil fuels. Good policies are the insurance plans of energy security.

Conclusion and The Road Ahead

Energy security means more than just keeping the lights on. It means affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy that supports growth and shields people from shocks. But Africa’s path is not linear, and our leaders must think differently, especially because traditional forecasts and linear plans are no longer enough.

Scenario planning offers a way forward. It allows leaders to map out different futures—whether technology leaps ahead, financing booms or busts, or policy shifts unexpectedly—and to prepare accordingly. It transforms planning from guesswork into resilience.

Practical steps I recommend include:

  • Building flexible infrastructure that can adapt to new technologies (fossil or renewables).
  • Creating blended finance frameworks that combine international, domestic, and private capital.
  • Embedding scenario exercises in ministries and utilities to test policies before they are locked in.
  • Strengthening regional cooperation to ensure that when one country faces an energy shortfall, others can step in through interconnected grids. The progress made with the West African Power Pool is a step in the right direction.

The future is not written. But with scenario planning, Africa can write its energy future well.